The theoretical winning percentage a player can expect over time. This is often expressed as a percentage known as the “house edge” or “house advantage.” The house edge represents the average profit the casino expects to make from each wager placed by a player over the long term.
If a game has a house edge of 5%, the casino expects to make an average profit of 5 cents for every dollar wagered on that game. Different games have different house edges. For instance, blackjack typically has a house edge of around 0.5% to 1% with optimal strategy, while games like keno can have house edges as high as 25% or more.
For example, in American double-zero roulette, a £5 bet on red has an 18/38 chance of winning (since there are 18 red numbers out of 38 total), with a £5 payout, and a 20/38 chance of losing, resulting in a £5 loss. Applying the EV formula: EV = (18/38 × £5) + (20/38 × -£5) = -£0.263. This indicates that, on average, a player loses approximately 26.3 cents per £5 bet on red, reflecting a house edge of about 5.26%.
It’s important to note that the house edge does not guarantee that the casino will win every time; instead, it ensures that the casino will profit over the long run if enough bets are placed. Players can experience short-term wins or losses, but over time, the cumulative results will tend to align with the house edge.
Understanding the expected win rate is essential for players to make informed decisions and manage their bankrolls effectively, while casinos use it to predict long-term profits and design games with appropriate house edges. It’s important to note that the expected win rate is a theoretical value based on probabilities and doesn’t guarantee specific outcomes in the short term; actual results can vary due to the inherent randomness of casino games.
