The mistaken belief that past random events influence future ones in gambling. Also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, this fallacy is particularly prevalent in gambling scenarios, where players may assume that a certain event is due to occur based on prior results, despite the fact that each event is independent.
It usually occurs when individuals think that if an event has happened less frequently than expected in the past, it is more likely to happen in the future—or vice versa. For instance, if a roulette wheel has landed on black several times in a row, players might believe that red is “due” to occur next, leading them to place larger bets on red. This erroneous reasoning stems from a misunderstanding of probability and randomness, as each spin of the wheel is independent of previous spins.
A famous illustration of the gambler’s fallacy occurred at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, when the roulette wheel landed on black 26 times consecutively. Many gamblers, believing that red was overdue, placed large bets on red. However, the ball continued to land on black for several more spins before finally hitting red. This incident led to significant financial losses for many players who acted on their misconceptions about probability.
The gambler’s fallacy arises from cognitive biases such as the representativeness heuristic, where individuals evaluate probabilities based on how similar an event is to their past experiences. People often expect short sequences of random events to reflect longer-term averages, leading them to believe that deviations must balance out over time. Additionally, this fallacy can be influenced by an internal locus of control, where gamblers mistakenly believe they can influence outcomes through their decisions or strategies.
